Euro Rising Before a New Fall?

EUR USD has taken serious damage after the Fed decision and bottomed out at a lower support level. Now, the pair is on the rise. After losing the steep uptrend channel, the direction seems down.

The Fed decision on Tuesday evening was digested on Wednesday, and the results were devastating. Fear of a global slowdown, or even a global double-dip recession sent stock markets tumbling down and forex traders flocking into “safe haven” currencies. The yen reached a fresh 15 year high against the dollar, and the dollar in tun made the highest daily gain in a long time. This first big wave is over. What now?

EUR/USD, that collapsed by over 300 pips, found support around the 1.2880 minor support line and managed to climb above 1.29. Further gains are capped by 1.30, the round number, and by 1.3114 that served as a clear line of resistance and later as a line of support.

Further on the road, 1.3267 provides further resistance. It was a support line in April, turned into a resistance line and was only temporarily breached after the disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls.

But the direction seems down.

Technicals: Looking at the charts, we can see that the steep uptrend that characterized the pair’s trading in the past two months has been violently broken. After steep gains, this breakdown signals a sharp fall. Indeed, a steep downtrend channel is beginning to form.

If 1.2880 is convincingly broken, the next important support line for the pair appears at 1.2720. This is a rather new line. It capped the Euro’s gains during the strong rise for a comparably longer time than other lines.

Below, 1.2670 is the next line of support, followed by 1.2520 and 1.2460 – another strong line that capped the pair. Beyond this horizon there are more lines, with 1.2150 being the most important one.

Fundamentals: The FOMC Statement was a groundbreaking event. For many investors and analysts, it gave an official stamp to the worries about the US plunging into a double dip recession and taking the whole world with it. It has the same magnitude as their decision 17 months beforehand, in March 2009, when massive dollar printing was announced.  The latest decision didn’t announce fresh dollar printing, but ignited deep fear.

This fear changed the paradigm once again. In the past two months, we’ve seen  “normal” market behavior – when the US dollar weakened on weak US data. This has changed with the Fed decision – weak US data is expected to create more fear, strengthening the US dollar. Risk aversion is back. Big time.

European fundamentals aren’t too good. The debt crisis isn’t really behind us. The stress tests skipped the big issue of sovereign debt and eventually weren’t taken seriously.

We’ll get an important look at European fundamentals on Friday – GDP will be released, first for Germany. The Euro-zone’s locomotive holds high hopes of strong growth in Q2 – 1.3%. Will it live up to these expectations?

For the rest of the Euro-zone, expectations stand on a nice growth rate of 0.7%. Such growth rates haven’t been seen in a long time. Also here, a disappointment can be destructive.

Later on Friday, we get US retail sales, CPI and finally the consumer sentiment indicator from the University of Michigan. All figures are expected to be modest. Any disappointment will push EUR/USD lower, as the risk aversive trend is very strong.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.