EURO Shows Bearish Technical Set-Up Ahead Of The NFP

EURO Shows Bearish Technical Set-Up Ahead Of The NFP

The FX market is trapped in tight ranges ahead of the NFP release at 08:30EDT. From a technical perspective, we still think that US dollar is headed higher, but we need a catalyst and a confirming price action. This will of course be an impulsive reversal higher on dollar index, or lower on Euro.

On the 4h Eur/Usd chart we still think that turning point is confirmed, after an impulsive fall well below corrective channel support line and also through 1.3800 swing low. As such, corrective wave E rally from 1.3144 is now considered as complete, which means that we expect further and powerful weakness in this market, in impulsive fashion once red wave 2) pull-back will complete; ideally around 1.39!

Guest post by Gregor Horvat

Notice that we are also looking at a possible head and shoulder pattern, which will put significant weakness in play, once the neck-line is taken out!

EUR USD Elliott Wave Analysis November 4 2011

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Here is one piece from article by a friend Yohay Elam regarding the NDP.
General scenarios for NFP:

+70K to 130K: The markets shake and quickly refocus on Greece. High probability.
+130K to 200K: The dollar weakens on a relief rally. High probability.
Above +200K: The dollar rallies on strong optimism. Low probability.
0 to +70K: The dollar strengthens on risk aversion. Medium probability.
A loss of jobs: The dollar gains a lot of ground as fear takes over. Low probability.

For a full article please click here!

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published on,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc. He recently won the award on for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!