Analysts at Westpac explained that the strong data in Germany supported the euro but the US dollar showed limited response to either a booming services survey or the FOMC minutes.
Key Quotes:
“The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting underscored the very strong economy and need to persist in their withdrawal of their still accommodative stance. Their view of the economy intermeeting had strengthened but they also cite concerns over moderation in growth overseas, Italian politics and risks from EM slippage and also from trade tensions. Of some interest were comments that they need to continue monitoring the flattening of the debt curve as it approaches inversion – some members thought external factors were in play but others worried that a negative curve often indicated recession ahead. Markets showed little reaction to the headlines.
US non-manufacturing ISM was firmer than expected with the composite index rising to 59.1 (est. 58.2) and non-factory business activity reaching 63.9 – the highest since 2005 – plus stronger export orders.
EUR/USD found support on strong German factory orders data, holding most of these gains by early Friday Sydney, up 0.3% to 1.1690. USD/JPY gained modestly to 110.70 as equities rallied. AUD/USD extended a sideways range into a second day, between 0.7360 and 0.7410. NZD/USD outperformed for no apparent reason, up 0.4% to 0.6790. AUD/NZD thus fell 40 pips over the day to 1.0880.
BoE governor Carney delivered a speech in which he stated greater confidence in UK activity and that Q1 weakness was transitory, therefore increasing the potential “to set monetary policy consistent with returning inflation sustainably to target”. Though he cited cautionary caveats over both Brexit and heightened trade tensions, while also monitoring incoming data, markets lifted short-term rates and GBP (+30 pips to 1.3265) given that a hike at the 2 August meeting is now considered increasingly likely (>80% priced in).
Later in London trade though, GBP/USD dropped from about 1.3265 to as low as 1.3204 on a Bloomberg story citing German government sources claiming that the Merkel government viewed UK PM May’s Brexit customs plan as unworkable.
US 10yr treasury yields fluctuated between 2.82% and 2.86%, while 2yr yields rose a little to 2.55%. Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.”
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