EUR/USD holds onto its range quite nicely. What’s next? Here are two opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
EUR/USD: Neutral Here; Stabilizing Before Attempting To Breach 1.2000-Level – BTMU
BTMU FX Strategy Research thinks that EUR/USD is stabilizing around current levels before it attempted to breach the 1.2000-level.
“The pair appears to be driven more by positioning and technicals during quiet holiday trading.
.Relative fundamentals still suggest that the US dollar will struggle to stage a more sustained rebound at the current juncture. The Fed is becoming more concerned with low inflation which has prompted the market to push back the expected timing of their next rate hike into early next year.
The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will attract some market attention. President Draghi is scheduled to make a speech but is not expected to discuss the ECB’s policy outlook. As a result, it should prove relatively neutral for the euro,” BTMU argues.
BTMU is neutral on EUR/USD around current levels sees the pair moving in 1.1500-1.1900 range in the near-term.
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USD: Longs Selectively Vs CAD, GBP As EUR/USD Inching Towards 1.20 – BofAML
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research argues that as the broad-based USD momentum looks to have turned, selective bullish USD exposure is preferred versus CAD and GBP.
“GBP is vulnerable to seasonal and political headwinds.
Tax reform and an improvement in data remain our baseline scenario which should boost the USD into year-end but the risk of disappointment is material,” BofAML argues.
“The ECB has taken the direction of travel further towards policy normalization and the risks are building that EUR/USD ends the year closer to $1.20,” BofAML adds.
Inline with this view, BofAML maintains a long USD/CAD* position in spot targeting 1.3225. and is short GBP/USD into year-end via an option structure.
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