EUR/USD is getting comfortable in a lower range below 1.3175, after yet another slide. It seems there is no mercy for the pair. After seeing very strong consumer confidence from the US yesterday was the latest excuse to buy the greenback. Today’s light calendar also supports that direction, with more disappointments from Germany. What’s next?
Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD consolidated the loss of 1.3175 and settled lower
- Current range: 1.3150 to 1.3175.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3150, 1.31 and 1.30.
- Above: 1.3175, 1.3220, 1.3295 and 1.3333
- 1.3175 is and old line but it proved strong.
- 1.3220 is the close on Friday.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Exp. 8.9, actual 8.6 points.
- 6:00 German Import Prices. Exp. -0.1%, actual -0.4%.
*All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Best US consumer confidence since 2007: The CB consumer confidence reached 92.4 points, the highest level since October 2007, just before the great recession began. Together with a leap in durable goods orders, the US dollar got more fuel for its rally. The initial reactions were somewhat muted, as some consolidation was needed, the greenback eventually reacted. Tomorrow we have more important data: GDP and jobless claims.
- Jackson Hole fallout: Janet Yellen did her best not to rock the boat, and the lack of dovishness was dollar positive, following the trend seen after the not-too-dovish FOMC minutes. ECB president Mario Draghi certainly left the door open for more action, and QE certainly seem on the cards. He also asked governments to do more. This triggered the weekend gap which was never closed.
- More weak German data: The fresh weakness in consumer confidence in Germany joins weaker business confidence seen earlier in the week. One of the factors is Russia, another is prices. We will get initial inflation data for Germany tomorrow.
- Some optimism on Ukraine:: The Russian and Ukrainian presidents met in Minsk and sent a more optimistic message. Together with a seemingly solid ceasefire in Gaza, geopolitics might take the back burner for a change.
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