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EUR/USD  is steady,  as the markets anxiously await  for Fed Chair Benarnd Bernanke to address the Federal Reserve Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole on Friday. In a late twist, ECB head Mario Draghi  has decided  not to attend the annual meeting of central bankers.  Today’s releases include  German Preliminary CPI, as well as two key US releases – Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales.  Tuesday’s US CB Consumer Confidence was well below the market estimate, so the markets will be looking for better news from today’s releases.

Here’s an update about technical lines, fundamental indicators and sentiment regarding EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical

  • Asian session: Euro/dollar moved upwards to 1.2553, consolidating at 1.2558. The pair  is unchanged  in the European session.
  • Current range: 1.2520 to 1.2587.

Further levels in both directions:    

 

  • Below: 1.2520, 1.2440, 1.24, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2250, 1.22, 1.2144, 1.2043, 1.20, 1.1876 and 1.17.
  • Above: 1.2587, 1.2623, 1.2670, 1.2743 and 1.2814.
  • 1.2520  continues to  provide weak support, 1.2440 is stronger.
  • Uptrend support is currently very far.
  • 1.2587   is the next line of resistance.

Euro/Dollar  steady as markets  eye Bernanke Speech in Jackson Hole – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • All Day:  German Preliminary CPI. Exp. +01.%.
  • 8:00 Italian Retail Sales. Exp. 3.3%. Actual 3.8%
  • 12:30  US Preliminary GDP. Exp. +1.7%.
  • 12:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Exp. +1.6%.
  • 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. +1.1%.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -1.1M.
  • 18:00 US Beige Book.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Markets eye upcoming Fed meeting: With ECB head Draghi a surprising no-show due to a “heavy workload”, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Bernanke when he addresses the Federal Reserve  meeting of central bankers  in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. Market analysts are doubtful that Bernanke will  signal that QE is imminent, and predict  that he will  shy  away from any specific policy announcements.  However, members of the Federal Open Market Committee  are apparently divided on whether the Fed should take action to jump-start the US economy. The FOMC meets next on Sep. 12, so it’s a safe bet that the QE speculation game will continue.
  • Draghi Skipping Jackson Hole: ECB head Mario Draghi raised eyebrows in his late decision not to attend the Jackson Hole conference, citing a “heavy work schedule”. In fairness, Draghi does have his hands full, as the ECB is busy preparing a plan to help lower borrowing costs for struggling Euro-zone members, notably Spain and Italy. The ECB will be holding a critical September 6 meeting, with the debt crisis the most important item on the laundry list. If the central bank announces some long-awaited steps, Draghi’s absence at Jackson Hole will quickly be forgotten.
  • Greece asks for more time, Germany objects: Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is seeking an extension until 2016 to meet the bailout targets. Samaras has declared that he only wants more time, not more money, while German officials have tersely responded that “more time means more money”. As part of the 130-billion euros bailout package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Greek government has committed to sweeping cuts of 11.5 billion euros in 2013 and 2014. However, the Troika must give its approval before Greece can receive the next installment of 31.5-billion-euros. Talks with the troika will continue in September.
  • Disappointing trip for Greek PM: Greek PM Samaras met with the leaders of Germany and France last week, but failed to extract any firm promises of aid or extensions. Chancellor Merkel was very complimentary of Greek PM Samaras, but had nothing concrete to offer her Greek guest, noting that Europe was in a “decisive” phase in the debt crisis. French President Hollande stated that he wanted to see Greece remain in the zone, but said that any discussion of delays in Greek repayments could only take place after the upcoming Troika report. Meanwhile, discussions about a manageable Grexit are getting louder: this time from the ECB’s Jörg Assmussen, that echoed Eurogroup chief Juncker. German grumbling is growing over Greece’s request for an extension, and a senior member of the Christian Social Union, a coalition partner, said he saw Greece leaving the euro next year. Other coalition partners are dead set against providing Greece with more time or money.   See how to trade the Grexit with EUR/USD.
  • Spain downgrades economy: There was further bad news  out of  Spain as the country saw its economy downgraded  for 2010 and 2011. Q2 for 2012 worsened to -0.4%, and the employment situation is abysmal, with an unemployment rate of over 24%. The region of Catalonia has officially asks for aid from the central government’s liquidity fund,  which could speed up an official  bailout request from the Spanish government. There are reports of ongoing negotiations between Spain and its European peers regarding a formal aid request. The Spanish government wants the ECB to resume purchasing government bonds on the open market. The ECB, however, is under pressure to provide a helping hand only if Spain accepts new conditions by formally requesting help from Euro-zone bailout funds. Spain is due to repay over 30 billion euros in October, so expect some agreement to be hammered out very shortly.