EUR/USD has started the new week on a quiet note, as the pair trades quietly in the mid-1.33 range in Monday’s European session. The US wrapped up last week on a sour note, as New Home Sales slumped to a seven-month low. Monday has a very light schedule with only two releases – US Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders. There are no Eurozone releases on Monday, but the markets will be keeping a close eye on German Ifo Business Climate, which kicks off Eurozone releases on Tuesday.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD was steady, touching a high of 1.3393 before consolidating at 1.3381. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
Current range: 1.3350 to 1.3415.
- Below: 1.3350, 1.33, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050, 1.30 and 1.2940.
- Above: 1.3415, 1.3450, 1.3520, 1.3590 and 1.37.
- 1.3350 remains under pressure on the downside. 1.3240 is next.
- 1.3415 continues to provide resistance.
- 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Exp. 0.6%.
- 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Exp. -3.0%.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- Markets Eye QE Tapering: When will the Fed taper QE? That is the million dollar question which continues to preoccupy the markets. Last week’s release of the FOMC minutes didn’t provide any clues as to timing, but appeared to confirm that QE tapering is a question of “when” rather than “if”. The minutes showed that Fed policymakers favor scaling back the bond-buying program, but are divided on the timing of such a move. The policymakers stated that recent US economic data was “mixed”, and all members agreed that it was still too early to scale back the current bond-buying levels of $85 billion each month. However, a September taper still remains a realistic possibility. As QE is a dollar-positive event, traders can expect the US currency to jump when the Fed decides to press the trigger.
- No QE news out of Jackson Hole Summit: The annual Jackson Hole Summit wrapped up on Saturday, and there were no dramatic developments regarding QE tapering. Federal Reserve head Bernard Bernanke was a no-show, and other policymakers didn’t hesitate to share their views. Dennis Lockhart, head of the Atlanta Fed, said that tapering could start in September, but only if US data justified such a move. There was a more hawkish statement from James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed. Bullard said that there was no need for the Fed to rush into QE tapering. The uncertainty over QE tapering has buoyed the US dollar, raised the yields on US treasury bonds and led nervous investors to pull billions of dollars out of emerging markets. As we get close to September, QE speculation could lead to turmoil in the markets.
- US Housing Data Falters: US New Home Sales had beaten the estimate for four consecutive releases, but that impressive streak came to a crashing end on Friday, as the key housing indicator slid to its lowest level since January. The indicator came in at 394 thousand, nowhere near the estimate of 487 thousand. Despite the very weak release, the US dollar remained steady against the euro, as the markets seemed more focused on QE.
- Greece looking for more aid: Greece has already received two bailouts from the troika, amounting to some 240 billion euros. Despite this massive infusion of funds, the country’s economy is still in difficult straits, and there is talk of a third bailout. On Sunday, Greek finance minister Yannis Stournaras said that Greece was looking for another 10 billion euros in aid, but would not adopt any austerity measures in return. Germany is unlikely be in a giving mood, with just weeks to go before national elections in Germany. Another rescue package for Greece could damage Chancellor Angela Merkel’s credibility, as she recently said she didn’t see a need for more aid to Greece.