EUR/USD below 1.26 again as German manufacturing PMI falls

The revised PMI numbers  don’t usually have a strong impact, but this time is different.  When a key industry in the biggest country sees its forward looking index slip to contraction, the currency reacts. It’s a 15 month low and an ominous sign for the euro-zone as a whole.

EUR/USD is falling under 1.26 once again. Can it reach a new 2 year low?

A  downwards revision was not unexpected: markets estimated a slide to 50.3 points, but the actual number is 49.9,  just under the 50 point mark separating contraction and growth.

The figure negatively impacts the  final euro-zone PMI, which slips to 50.3 points. The original number was 50.5 and no revision was expected. Spain and Italy did not disappoint, with the latter even returning to growth according to Markit. French manufacturing PMI stands at 48.8, as expected.

The news joins the refusal of France to further adapt its policy to euro-zone  guidelines.

Here is the chart showing the second slide of EUR/USD below 1.26. Yesterday’s low, which was a 2 year low, is 1.2570. The big event of the week is the ECB rate decision tomorrow.