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EURUSD: The pair has put its broader uptrend on hold after declining through its rising channel in place for about three months. This technical development has opened up risk to the downside with eyes on the 1.4061 level, its April 01’2011 low.

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A trade below that level will call for a run at its .382 Fib Ret (1.2874 – 1.4519 rally) at 1.3900 ahead of the 1.3852 level, its Mar 15’2011 low. We expect a combination these two support levels to halt the pair’s declines and create scope for a recovery higher.

Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.4519 level to reverse its present bear threats. This will open up further strength towards the 1.4576 level, its Jan 2010 high.

Above this level will pave the way for further gains towards the 1.4700 level, its psycho level ahead of the 1.4902 level.

EUR USD Technical Analysis April 19