The market seems to be in a mood of “sell the US dollar now, ask questions later”. The greenback is losing ground not only to the rebounding commodity currencies that run higher with oil, but also to the euro and the yen which have been more subdued in all this mess.
EUR/USD has traded in frustrating ranges for quite some time. Last week it made a break below the trading range of 1.135 to 1.1460 and reached the next support level of 1.1250. Yesterday saw an attempt to move back above 1.1335, but this level held.
Not anymore.
EUR/USD has reached a high of 1.1345, moving up on the weakness of the greenback. But is it justified? Markets have changed their mind and EUR/USD is sliding back down, at 1.1320 at the time of writing.
False breaks are not uncommon with EUR/USD.
From the USD side, the market is ignoring the hawkish words of Eric Rosengren. This known dove said investors are too pessimistic regarding rates and he even saw wages picking up. Also Evans of the Chicago Fed, also a dove, had hawkish tones in his recent speeches.
Yellen and Dudley remain the vocal doves and their view prevails. At least for now.
But what about the other side of the equation? Draghi is set to speak up on Thursday.While no change in policy is on the cards, he may certainly make an attempt to talk down the euro. On one hand, he failed to weaken the common currency when he actually introduced new and bold policy measures last time, so can words work?
Perhaps he’ll use the “helicopter” option: talking about handing out money to euro-zone citizens in order for them to spend and push up inflation. This wild idea has not been totally ruled out by the ECB president last time. Since then, it has been denied several times but the mere discussion shows the central bank is quite desperate, especially as governments continue sitting on their hands.
In any case, here is the EUR/USD chart. 1.1250 and 1.125 are support, 1.1335 and 1.1410 are resistance.
More:
- What’s Next For The Euro?
- ECB To Re-Open The Door To Rate Cuts: A Return To EUR/USD Divergence Trade? – Danske
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