A lot of FX pairs have turned into the direction of USD in the last 24 hours, so it should be interesting to see if the NFP will cause acceleration on those moves, or will we see another short-term swing against the buck. Our technical analysis suggests that the USD will rise, but even if just for the short-term.
Expectations are at 228K, which is quite above 126K number that came out last month. But we will have to keep an eye on revisions as well. A revision to above 126K would be bullish for the dollar, as 126K was considered a very bad figure last month.
On EURUSD we have seen a nice turn down from the highs while the German DAX turned up from its ending diagonal. On the DAX we can count five waves up which is a bullish structure, so further gains should follow after any corrective retracement. Support on pullback could be found near 11377.
DAX (June 2015) 15min Elliott Wave Analysis
So if DAX will go higher, then EURUSD will probably decline to lower levels. That said, a fifth wave high can be in place for EUR so be aware of a reversal down to 1.1060 in sessions ahead.
EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
In this week’s podcast, we take tips from Yellen, discuss commodity currencies and preview next week’s events
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