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EUR/USD  is trading close to the highs of the month so far, riding on the weakness of the US dollar. Another wave of greenback sell off  puts the pair within reach of 1.25. Can it make the break? A lot depends on the results of the TLTRO, which could determine the QE question in Europe. Apart from that, we have  US retail sales which include the holiday season.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair continued rising, settling above 1.2450.
  • Current range:  1.2450 to 1.25.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD December 11 2014 US retail sales and TLTRO closely watched euro dollar

  • Below:  1.24, 1.2450, 1.2360, 1.2280, 1.2250, 1.2140 and 1.2042.
  • Above: 1.25, 1.2570 and 1.2620.
  • 1.2450  now  turns into weak support ahead of 1.2360
  • 1.25 is critical resistance.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00  German Final CPI. Exp. 0% m/m, 0.6% y.y. Actual: as expected.
  • 7:45 French CPI. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 9:00 ECB Monthly Bulletin.
  • 9:00  Italian Industrial Production. Exp. +0.3%.
  • 10:15 TLTRO 2 results. Preview:  TLTRO: 3 scenarios for EUR/USD
  • 13:30 US  Retail Sales. Exp. +0.4%, core sales exp. +0.1%.
  • 13:30 US jobless claims. Exp. 299K.
  • 13:30 US import prices. Exp. -1.7%.
  • 15:00 US  Business Inventories. Exp. +0.2%

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Another dollar sell off:  Without anything of importance from the US and after a good JOLTs number in the previous day, US traders sold the US dollar once again.  The dollar  lost even more ground after  enjoying a strong NFP on Friday, something that seems long forgotten. How long can this last? Retail sales could provide the answer.
  • TLTRO eyed: Tension is rising towards tomorrow’s TLTRO 2 results. After a poor take up in the first tranche, another poor one now could  cement euro-zone QE. See the preview:  TLTRO: 3 scenarios for EUR/USD
  • Greek presidential elections:  Yes, Greece is back to the headlines. The  country approved a budget that did not receive the blessing of the troika. To try to defuse the situation, an extension of two months was agreed upon. However, it’s not going to be a quiet holiday season. The government in Athens announced presidential elections for  December 17th. If parliament is unable to agree on a president with a wide majority within three rounds, snap elections are held. In this case, the opposition anti-bailout SYRIZA party could gain control according to the recent polls, and this could certainly  complicate the situation. The Athens stock exchange collapsed.

In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk  about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:

Download it directly here.