EUR/USD is on the rise once again, extending the recent gains and reaching the highest levels during the month of April, reaching a high of 1.0747.
These recent gains are an extension of the bounce within the uptrend channel. Further resistance awaits at 1.0775 and 1.0830.
Why is EUR/USD rising?
Looking at other charts, it is easy to see that the US dollar has resumed its falls after a correction and an attempt to recover. US yields remain depressed and this does not help the greenback. The ongoing theme is a disillusion from Trump: the grand plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending seem unrealistic.
But the euro also enjoys a favorable poll by Harris Interactive. The poll gives Macron 25%, and in this case with a more significant lead on Le Pen with 22%. Macron advanced one point in comparison to the previous poll.
Both Fillon and Melenchon are behind with 19%. In theory, radical-left Melenchon has a rough road to meet Le Pen in the second round. This is the nightmare scenario that is scaring markets.
In the second round, this poll by Harris puts Macron at a clear victory against Le Pen, with 66% support. The centrist is also expected to beat the other two candidates. Fillon would beat Le Pen with 58% support and also Melenchon would beat Le Pen, but that would be a small consolation: he is not market friendly.
Macron and Fillon are the favorite candidates for markets.
The chart below shows the rise within the uptrend channel. The world’s most popular currency pair enjoyed higher lows since January.
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