Former French Prime Minister Alain Juppe was seen as a viable, centrist alternative to his struggling peer Françios Fillon in the French Presidential Elections. He lost the primaries in the center-right Les Republicans to Fillon, but since then, Fillon has been embroiled in scandal.
With calls on Fillon to quit, Juppe was seen as a great hope for markets: a more centrist and more experienced candidate to beat the former socialist Macron in the first round and then beat Le Pen in the second round.
In a press conference, Juppe ended speculation and stated he will not run instead of Fillon and said his decision was “definite.”
This triggered a downfall in EUR/USD: it had already tackled 1.0640 earlier, and now it trades at 1.0585.
Buy opportunity?
Markets probably fantasized about center-right Juppe, but the news is quite good for another centrist: Emmanuel Macron. The candidate is consolidating his second place in the first round and is expected to beat Le Pen in the second round with a wider margin than Fillon would have.
The statement by Juppe therefore helps consolidate Macron’s position. The upcoming opinion polls will probably show a continuation of the recent trend of further support for Macron as Fillon insists on running despite no support. Juppe joined the chorus of Les Republicans peers that criticized Fillon.
So, is there a buy opportunity here?
Perhaps. It is always important to remember that EUR/USD has many moving parts: the ECB meeting later this week, the NFP the day afterward, the Fed’s upcoming rate hike and Trump’s tweets are among the biggest movers and shakers.
Nevertheless, selling the common currency on Juppe’s non-running seems over the top.
Share
