EUR/USD backed down from the post-Draghi highs only to shoot even higher on the Fed’s dovishness. The highlights for the upcoming week are the dual German business surveys as well as PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The Fed went to the extreme dovish edge, hitting the dollar hard. They painted a gloomier picture than many had expected and EUR/USD got close to the highs of the year. It did not begin that way: the pair edged down as markets began understanding the ECB delivered quite a lot. The recent moves are probably frustrating for the central bank, which would prefer a weaker euro, despite marginally better inflation figures in the euro-zone: core CPI was revised up to 0.8%.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”EURUSDUpdate”/]EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Current Account: Monday, 9:00. The euro-zone enjoys a positive current account balance, mostly thanks to the German export machine. After a surplus of 25.5 billion, a similar figure could be seen now: 26.3 billion.
- Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 11:00. The German central bank provides its monthly assessment of the economy, the largest in Europe. It will be interesting to see the growth and inflation prospects.
- Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00. This official figure from Eurostat has been in negative ground for quite some time and disappointed with -9 in February, reflecting worsening pessimism.
- Flash PMIs: Tuesday: France at 8:00, Germany at 8:30 and the whole euro-zone at 9:00. Markit showed that the French manufacturing sector has barely been on the growth side in February, with 50.2 points, just above the 50 point threshold separating growth and contraction. The same score is expected now. The services sector has been on the other side, with 49.2 points and a small bounce to 49.5 is predicted. Germany also saw a balance in the manufacturing sector with 50.5, now expected to stand at 50.9. However, the country enjoyed a strong services sector print with 55.3 points with 55.1 now on the cards. The whole euro zone saw 51.2 and 53.3 points respectively. They are now expected to stand at 51.4 and 53.5. The German figures usually carry the most weight, especially the manufacturing figure.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank and it showed a deterioration in sentiment during February, with 105.7 points. Will it bounce now? Market turbulence has weighed on sentiment but things have improved since then. A score of 106.1 is expected.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. According to this important survey, sentiment is hardly optimistic, with the economic confidence standing at only 1 point. Will we bounce back or fall to negative territory now? Hopes are higher with 6.3 predicted. Also note the all-European figure which stood on 13.6 points in February. and 8.2 is now likely.
- Belgian NBB Business Climate: Tuesday, 14:00. Despite coming from a small country, this wide survey reflects the mood within businesses throughout the continent. A disappointing fall to -6.6 points was seen in February and another slide to -6 is expected.
- German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. Contrary to businesses, consumer felt relatively upbeat in February, with the score of this survey surprising with a climb to 9.5 points.
- ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after the ECB decision, we get to see the data that the members analyzed before making their decision. This could give us another view on inflation.
- TLTRO: Thursday, 10:15. Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) are the ECB’s cheap loans to banks that are on the condition of lending to the real economy. In the latest auction, banks took out 18.3 billion euros of loans. The bigger the number, the better for the economy, but the impact on the currency is mixed.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar began sliding from the highs seen last week, from 1.1220. It dipped below 1.1060 but from there made an impressive bounce to a high of 1.1342 before sliding.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start from higher ground this time: 1.1460 was a key resistance line in 2015 and 1000 above the multi-year lows. 1.1373 is a veteran line from 2003 that continued playing a role also in 2015.
1.13 worked as support back in October and is the high line at the moment. It is followed by the swing low of 1.1220 in September which is minor resistance now.
1.1140 cushioned the pair in October. 1.1070 served as a clear separator of ranges during February and also beforehand.
1.10 is a round number and significant resistance. 1.0960, which worked in the past as resistance, provided a cushion for the pair in February. 1.0825 worked as support in early March 2015 and should also be watched. This is now a triple bottom.
The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support. 1.0710 is the next support line on the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015. 1.0630 worked as nice support in November 2015 and then switched to resistance.
I am neutral on EUR/USD
We heard from the ECB and from the Fed and they are both slightly dovish and no new policy measures are on the near-term horizon. We could see stability into the Easter weekend.
In our latest podcast we digest the dovish Fed
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