EUR/USD rode higher on the general weakness of the dollar, which was partially ignited by a weak existing home sales figure. However, so far it fails to settle above 1.32, while other currencies gain against the greenback. The calendar remains light today towards a big bulk of events tomorrow. However, speculation for QE tapering in September mounts after a new survey shows increasing confidence among economists. In the euro-zone, troubles aren’t over, especially in Spain.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- Asian session: Euro/dollar traded in a limited range under 1.32 and attempts to move higher didn’t succeed.
Current range: 1.3175 to 1.3250.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050, 1.30, 1.2940, 1.2890 and 1.2840.
- Above: 1.3255, 1.3350 and 1.34.
- On the downside, 1.31 is significant support.
- Conquering 1.32 seems hard, and the next target is 1.3250.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 13:00 US HPI, exp. +0.9%.
- 14:00 Euro-zone consumer confidence, exp. -18 points.
- 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index, exp. 7 points.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Tapering expectations higher for September: A new survey of economists show that half of them see tapering in September, from a scale of $85 to $65 billion. This is a rise compared to previous surveys. Is it already priced in by the markets? There is a Fed decision at the end of July, but expectations are low. Fed chair Bernard Bernanke testified before Congress and did not really add anything new. Bernanke said that monetary policy would remain accommodative, and that the pace of bond buys is “not on a preset course“. This rather vague statement leaves the Fed plenty of wiggle room to scale down QE should it choose to do so. Bernanke reiterated that any decision to taper QE would depend on economic conditions. He noted that present unemployment levels (7.6%) were “well above” normal levels, and shied away from presenting any time deadlines for scaling down QE. So the markets were left with the message that any tapering will be delayed until the recovery deepens and unemployment falls. Job figures remain left, right and center for markets.
- Worries from housing sector: After weak building permits and housing starts, also existing home sales disappointed with a drop to 5.08 million, and this pushed the dollar lower across the board. The Fed was happy with the recovery of the housing sector, which is partially attributed to its policies. The new home sales is now eyed, due to wide economic effects of building a new house.
- Spanish issues: . The scandal surrounding the Spanish ruling party refuses to die. There have been calls for Rajoy’s resignation, but analysts have noted that top level resignations by Spanish political figures are rare, as it is not part of the Spanish political culture. Rajoy, who has denied any wrongdoing, has a strong majority in parliament and is not expected to step down but the political crisis is still present. Spain had to tap its social security reserve fund in order to pay pensions and house prices continue falling. Nevertheless, Spain’s finance minister de Guindos declared that Spain’s economy is improving “beyond seasonal effects”.
- German optimism: The German Bundesbank assessed that the euro-zone’s locomotive enjoyed strong growth in Q2, but is set to slow down in Q3. Germany is facing elections on September 22nd. PMI figures are awaited.
- Recent technical analysis articles: EUR/USD set to extend gains
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