EUR/USD July 9 – Little Movement as Markets Eye FOMC
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EUR/USD July 9 – Little Movement as Markets Eye FOMC

EUR/USD  is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly above the  1.36 line.  In the US, today’s  major event  is the release  of the FOMC  minutes.  In the Eurozone, the sole event is a speech by  ECB  head  Mario Draghi at an event in London.

 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.

  • EUR/USD  showed little movement in  the Asian session, touching a high of 1.3631. The pair is almost unchanged in the European session.
  • Current range:  1.3610 to 1.3650.

Further levels in both directions:   EURUSD. Daily Forecast July 9


  • Below: 1.3610, 1.3585, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, and 1.34.
  • Above: 1.3650, 1.3677, 1.37 and 1.3740.
  • On the downside, the pair is testing 1.310. 1.3585 follows.
  • 1.3650 is weak resistance. 1.3677 is next.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.7M.
  • 17:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  • 18:30 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks.

*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment


  • Fed minutes in spotlight: The FOMC releases the minutes of its  June policy meeting later on Wednesday. The timing of a rate hike by the Fed to continue to be a hot topic, and the markets would love some clarity as to when the Fed is looking to raise interest rates. Any hints in this regard could send the currency markets scrambling. Based on updated Fed forecasts for inflation and unemployment, it’s safe to say that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the pace of the US recovery.
  • German trade surplus widens:  There was finally some positive news out of Germany, after a rash of weak data from the Eurozone’s largest economy. Trade Balance improved last month, posting a surplus of EUR 18 billion, the highest reading since last October. This easily surpassed the estimate of EUR 15.7 billion. German retail sales, employment and manufacturing data softened  in May, causing concern that a weakening German economy could dash hopes of growth in the Eurozone and hurt the euro.
  • US  job numbers keep rolling: US employment numbers continue to improve. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.64 million, easily beating the estimate of 4.53 million. This follows excellent figures from Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls, one of the most important indicators, bounced back in June with a strong gain of 288 thousand new jobs. This crushed the estimate of 214 thousand. There was more good news from the Unemployment Rate, which continues to move downward. The indicator dipped to 6.1%, its lowest level since September 2008. The strong employment numbers are sure to increase speculation about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and remarks by Fed policymakers will be under the market microscope.
  • Dovish Draghi: The ECB did not alter monetary policy and this was expected. However, Mario Draghi did say that they are watching EUR/USD with “much attention” and that QE is certainly on the cards. Is the threat real? Other ECB members don’t see it coming in the near future. Yet in any case, a rate hike in the euro-zone isn’t on the cards until 2017 unless inflation and growth levels show unexpected improvement.
  • US GDP looks like an outlier: The final US GDP release for Q1 was a disaster, as the economy contracted by a staggering 2.9% in Q1. However, the markets remained calm, and the US dollar escaped without much damage against most of its major rivals. More recent releases have been better, notably  employment and  housing data.  With  key indicators giving the economy a thumbs-up, the figure seems somewhat detached from reality.

More:  Where is the fall of EUR/USD?

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.