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After a  brief recovery to start off  June, the Euro is once again moving downwards. There is talk of a interest rate cut by the ECB on Wednesday to help the beleaguered EZ. Such a move would likely push down the euro, at least in the short term.  As well,  the seems to be no consensus among EZ leaders on what to do about the banking crisis in Spain, and the markets are nervous about the continued dithering and inaction by politicians and policymakers. Euro-zone Retail Sales fell by 1.0%, hitting an eleven-month low. Today’s key events include the US Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the G7 teleconference meeting, at which leaders are sure to discuss the crisis in the EZ. The markets will also be keeping an eye on German Factory Orders, scheduled for release later on Tuesday.

Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: The pair climbed to 1.2542, and consolidated at 1.2509. The euro has  dropped sharply in the European session, and was trading at 1.2429.
  • Current range: 1.24 to 1.2460.

 

  • Further levels in both directions: Below: 1.24, 1.2330, 1.22, 1.2144, 1.20, 1.1876 and 1.17.
  • Above: 1.2460, 1.25, 1.2587, 1.2623, 1.2660, 1.2760 and 1.2814.
  • 1.2460 was breached in Asian trading, but is again providing resistance as the pair has retraced.
  • 1.2400 is providing weak support, and looks to be further tested.

Euro/Dollar  drops on talk of ECB lowering interest rates  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:45   Italian Services PMI. Exp.  41.8 points. Actual:  42.8 points.
  • 8:00   Euro-zone Final Services PMI. Exp. 46.5 points. Actual: 46.7 points.  
  • 9:00   Euro-zone Retail Sales. Exp. -0.1%. Actual -1.0%.
  • 10:00   German Factory Orders. Exp. -0.1%.
  • 14:00  US Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.6 points. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
  • All Day: G7 meetings

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • ECB interest rate cut?  With the EZ producing mostly weak economic data and even reliable Germany showing weakness, there is growing talk of a interest rate cut by the ECB on Wednesday. A lower rate would demonstrate that the central bank is “taking the bull by the horns” in a effort to revive the sputtering EZ economies. However, ECB chief Draghi has said clearly that the ball is the governments’ court and released a stark warning in an official appearance in the European parliament. The consensus is that the central bank will leave rates unchanged at 1.0%.
  • Bailout for Spain?: There are reports suggested that a bailout plan for the euro area’s fourth largest economy  is the works and that Germany is pressuring Spain to accept such a program. The report suggests a minimal package of 50 to 80 billion euros to shore up the ailing banks. Spanish 10 year bond yields remain extremely high, at around 6.50%. A classic bailout is just one of the possible options to rescue Spain.
  • US employment releases stumble: The US gained only 69K jobs in May and previous figures were revised to the downside. Also the unemployment rate is now higher, at  8.2%. This casts yet another shadow on global growth. Some think that this will trigger the Fed to action, but it doesn’t seem real as inflation isn’t low enough and the effect of bond buying with historically low US yields is meaningless. The Fed may have exhausted its options, and may  be consigned  to cheering  from the sidelines.
  • Greek elections down to the wire: The last polls for the Greek elections were mixed: some show a tie between leading pro-bailout New Democracy and anti-bailout SYRIZA. Others show one of the parties leading. We are now in the “blackout” period  in which  polls are banned. The election of anti-bailout SYRIZA will certainly accelerate the Greek exit, but  the election is too close to call  and will likely remain so right down to the wire.  See how to trade the Grexit with EUR/USD.
  • Money leaving Greece: Greek banks received 18 billion euros in recapitalization money but this seems like a temporary relief. Companies are moving money out of the country, and the bigger problem is with tax payments: many Greeks are deferring tax payments  and this weighs heavily on the state coffers, which are running dry.