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EUR/USD: Look Out Below As Cyclical Low In Sight – BTMU

EUR/USD managed to stage a recovery and created a double-bottom. However, there may be room for more falls:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Renewed downward momentum for the euro against the US dollar remains firmly in place in the near-term.

EUR/USD is now moving to within touching distance of testing key technical support at 1.0458 which was the cyclical low from March 2015. A break below would open the door for a potential test of parity.

The euro is likely to remain offered in the week ahead driven by positioning in the run up to the Italian constitutional referendum on the 4th December. Comments from President Draghi will also be watched closely ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting next month. The US dollar rally has come a long way in a short period of time increasing the risk of a pullback although any dips are likely to be bought.

The main US economic data release in the week ahead will be US GDP report for Q3  which is expected to reveal a modest upward revision to growth, and the latest ADP survey for November. We do not expect the reports to alter the market’s view that a December Fed hike is a done deal. US dollar performance will continue to be driven more by expectations for faster tightening in the coming years under President Trump.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.