EUR/USD Nov. 19 – Broke Above Resistance

EUR/USD jumped higher on hopes for a resolution in Ireland and is now fighting to settle above a higher resistance line. Will it close the week even higher, or will the current positions be reversed? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

Euro/Dollar above 1.37

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD struggled with 1.3640. Break higher came on European session.
• Current Range between 1.37 to 1.3830
• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.37, 1.3640, 1.3530, 1.3430, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3114 and 1.2920.  Above   1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4030, 1.4160, and 1.4217.
• 1.3334 significant lower point – this was an important peak in August, after which the Euro made a big decline. A struggle will probably be seen here.
• 1.3830 significant higher point. EUR/USD has to convince that it conquered 1.37 first.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 7:00 German PPI. Exp. +0.4%. Actual +0.4%.
• 10:15 US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks.
• 10:45 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
• 12:30 ECB member Axel Weber talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Ireland bailout terms discussed in depth. While Ireland still has cash for some time, the EU wants to prevent the contagion scenario, in which big economies such as Spain and Italy cannot raise money.
• Note that Bernanke’s speech has already been leaked, yet the actual speech will still rock the market, and so will the other speakers.
• Chinese hike of the reserve requirement doesn’t have an impact on the Euro. A hike in the Chinese interest rate is what’s needed to take the Euro down.
• Currensee Community: 51% are long, 49% are short, down from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1207 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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