EUR/USD is slipping from high ground at 1.25, following the unimpressive US data. A busy schedule ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday wasn’t all bad, but it certainly leaned to the downside and the US dollar reacted negatively, with EUR/USD taking one leg higher. And while Americans are getting ready for the feast, we have a busy day in Europe, with important German inflation data and a speech by Mario Draghi. Will the pair continue higher or will Draghi hit it hard once again?
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair traded steadily under 1.2570, and fell in the European session.
- Current range: 1.2440 to 1.25.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2440, 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
- Above: 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
- 1.2360 is the multi-year low the double bottom.
- 1.2570 is the next resistance line, but it is hard to reach.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 8:00 Spanish CPI y/y. Exp. -0.3%. Actual: national -0.4%, HICP -0.5%.
- 8:55 German unemployment change. Exp. -1K.
- 9:00 Euro-zone M3 Money Supply. Exp. -2.6%.
- 9:00 Euro-zone Private loans. Exp. -1%.
- 11:30 ECB president Mario Draghi talks.
- 12:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Exp. 8.6 points.
- 12:15 German Bundesbank Jens Weidmann talks.
- 13:00 German CPI. Exp. 0% m/m +0.6% y/y. Note that the various German states release their data throughout the day. Initial data doesn’t look good.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- More unconvincing US data: While US GDP growth was actually revised to the upside, to 3.9%, the components are still not convincing enough: consumer spending is at 2.2% and inventory buildup now means payback later on. The bigger blow came from the disappointing CB Consumer Confidence. This kept the greenback depressed. Durable goods orders saw a beat in the headline number but a miss on the core, jobless claims badly disappointed with a rise above 300K and new home sales also fell short of predictions. Only the Fed eyed Core PCE Price Index beat expectations.
- QE is becoming a question of when: ECB Vice President Constancio talked about making a decision on QE during Q1. He went further to provide justification (well, low inflation for a long time), details (sovereign bond buying will be according to proportional GDP) and timing: Q1. Today we here from his boss, which already hit the euro hard on Friday.
- Confident Germans: The IFO figure bounced from the lows, showing more confidence among businesses, along the lines seen with the bounce in the ZEW number. This contradicts PMIs and offers some hope, especially for those trading the euro as a proxy for Germany.
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