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Euro dollar  made an impressive breakout above the 1.37 line it struggled with for several days. Fresh promises that a serious solution is close push the pair higher. The fears after the Slovak rejection of the new EFSF powers were replaced by optimism that it’s only a matter of days before the final ratification. Also the surprising leap in industrial production helps the euro. Today we also have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, among other events.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: A quiet session saw the pair trading in a narrow range around 1.3630.
  • Current range: 1.37 to 1.38.EUR USD Chart October 12 2011
  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.37, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.34, 1.3360, 1.3285.
  • Above:   1.38, 1.3838, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160.
  • 1.37 was fierce resistance, and it when it was broken, the euro jumped much higher. It now turns into support.
  • On the upside, 1.38 is minor resistance before 1.3838.

Euro/Dollar in rising channel  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 5:30  French CPI . Exp. +0.3%. Actual =0.1%.
  • 6:00  German WPI. Exp. -0.1%. Actual +0.3%.
  • 9:00 Euro-zone  Industrial Production. Exp. -0.8%.Actual +1.2%.
  • 17:20 US FOMC member Richard Fisher talks.
  • 17:30 US FOMC member Charles Plosser talks.
  • 18:00 US  FOMC Meeting Minutes.  
  • 18:30 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Slovak government falls but will likely approve the EFSF powers: The leaders in Slovakia tied the vote on the EFSF powers to a confidence vote and lost the vote. The current caretaker government will likely push to approve these July 21 decisions with opposition support. The opposition might join the government or be handed early elections. In any case, the full 17 member ratification will likely be sealed in the next few days.
  • Olli Rehn joins  Merkel and Sarkozy’s promises: EU Commissioner Olli Rehn hinted that an agreement is close about a comprehensive plan to tackle the debt crisis. Similar to the leaders of Germany and France no details were released, but the market buys into this optimism. There are talks of a very unsurprising due date: the first week of November. This fits perfectly well with The Plan.
  • Greece going to get aid soon?: The technical staff of the troika released its report. There is no clear approval of the next tranche of aid, but the assumption is that this will eventually happen.
  • Spanish banks downgraded: Following the downgrade of Italy and Spain, Fitch continued to downgrading Spain’s biggest banks, and also changed the classification for the whole banking sector.
  • What else was the Fed considering?: The FOMC meeting minutes will reveal what went behind the scenes of the decision on “Operation Twist”. We will see what other options the Fed had in mind, and if another round of QE was one of them.
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