EUR/USD October 8 – Drifting Towards Uptrend Support

EUR/USD bounced off 1.40 and is range trading. Uptrend resistance is getting closer. Non-Farm Payrolls will rock the markets today. Are your ready? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD off 1.40

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  very quiet session, with EUR/USD trading under 1.3950.
• Current Range between 1.3850 to 1.3950
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3850, 1.38, 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430.  Above   1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
• Wide uptrend channel getting close again: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.
• The channel will be around 1.3880 at the release of the NFP.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 6:00  German Trade Balance. Exp. +12.3 billion. Actual +11.7. Slight disappointment.
• 12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +1.
• 12:30 US Unemployment rate: Exp. 9.7%.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week, but in the meantime, the downgrade of Ireland hurt the Euro only for a short time.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs. We get jobs data  today.
• Non-Farm Payrolls is the kind of forex – high volatility expected.
• The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
• Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short, slightly up from 51:49  yesterday. These are 1094 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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