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EUR/USD recovered from the breakdown and ended the week higher. The upcoming week is quite busy – a rate decision and 7 other events are due. Here’s an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast

The recovery seemed temporary at first, but the Euro found new strength, changing my sentiment about it. OK, let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Sentix continues to show  pessimism  among the 2,800 investors it surveys. The score is predicted to advance from -7.5 to -5.9 points, still in the negative zone.
  2. Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. While this figure rarely surprises, it still moves the markets. The final release of GDP is expected to confirm the limited growth rate in Q4 – 0.1%. Germany’s economy didn’t grow in Q4.
  3. German Factory Orders: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. The continent’s largest economy surprised with big growth in orders last time – 4.3%. A correction is predicted in this release – a drop of 0.9%. This usually moves the markets.
  4. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. Despite the earlier releases by France and Germany, this all-European figure moves the markets – the drop of 0.3% in sales hurt the Euro last month. This time, they are predicted to remain unchanged.
  5. German Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. The second major figure from Germany is expected to be better – the industrial product is expected to rise by 0.7%, slightly better than last month’s 0.6% rise. The timing, just before the rate decision, makes this releases choppy.
  6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t predicted to move theMinimum Bid Rate  from 1%. Trichet’s words in the ECB press conference will probably shake the Euro – he will probably relate to the Greek accord, other debt-struck countries and the future of the European economies.
  7. French Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy is expected to show a 0.4% rise in industrial output, less than half the scale of last time’s rise. The French economy is advancing.
  8. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Begins speaking on Friday at 15:30 GMT. A day after the rate decision, Trichet will speak in Milan about “Shaping a New World: Economic Crisis and Global Governance” – this is a direct continuation of the expected agenda after the rate decision.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week with an important move above 1.3423, recovering from the blow in the previous week, and managed to stay strong. EUR/USD touched 1.36 and finally closed at 1.3503.

Some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of the Euro is between the last week’s limits – 1.3380 below and 1.36 above.

Above 1.36, the next line of resistance is an important one – 1.3850 – this is an area that the Euro failed to break, and began a collapse from there. Even higher, 1.40 is the next line of resistance, followed by 1.42, but these are quite far now.

Looking down below 1.3380, the next line is the year-to-date low of 1.3267, which was also half the way between the previous support line of 1.3423 and the next one – 1.3080, which remains as a far support line.

I am neutral on EUR/USD.

The impressive recovery following the Greek accord changed my sentiment to neutral, despite the continent’s many problems such as the double-digit unemployment rate and debt issue in other countries.

This popular pair receives excellent articles on the web. Here are my favorites:

  • Casey Stubbs sees a pattern forming in EUR/USD in the 1-hour charts.
  • Kathy Lien compares the EUR/USD reaction to a similar release in the past, and sees further dollar strength.
  • Joel Kruger, on DailyFX, sees the Euro’s strength as merely a corrective move.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.

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