EUR/USD Outlook – February 22-26

A sixth negative week brings the Euro close to another major support line. The upcoming week is quite eventful in the Euro-zone, with the IFO survey, inflation numbers and final German GDP standing out among the many events. Here’s an outlook for this week’s European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD on its lower ground.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The ongoing trouble in Europe also brought it to a decade low against the Aussie. This pair is also on the fall. Let’s start reviewing the 11 events that await us:

1. French Consumer Spending: Published on Tuesday at 7:45 GMT. The continent’s second largest economy enjoyed a big rise in consumer spending last month, and is doing well, all in all. This time, consumers are predicted to cut their spending by 0.6%.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This major survey of 7000 businesses is rising steadily, contrary to other European surveys. Last month’s 95.8 score is expected to be followed by 96.3, continuing the steady rise of this index month by month.
3. NBB Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This survey from the small country of Belgium reflects the situation quite well – steady improvement, but still negative. It’s predicted to edge up from -7 to -5 this time, after disappointing last month. A positive number will boost the Euro.
4. German Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 7:0 GMT. The zone’s largest economy has been the locomotive for growth in the middle of 2009, but failed to grow in Q4. The stagnant economy hurts the Euro. This 0% growth is predicted to be confirmed. IF the German economy contracted in Q4, this will be a blow to the Euro.
5. GfK German Consumer Climate: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT and overshadowed by the GDP release. 2000 German consumers have reached the peak of their optimism in September, but have lost confidence since then. The score of 3.2 is expected to remain unchanged this time.
6. Industrial New Orders: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. New orders by manufacturers made a great surprise last time by rising in a scale of 2.7%. This indicator is usually volatile, so this month will probably see a drop of 1.2% in the sales volume.
7. German Unemployment Change: Published on Thursday at 8:55 GMT. After 6 straight months of drop in unemployment, a rise of 6000 people was seen last month. This negative will probably be continued with another rise – 18,000 this time. Yet another weak figure from this big country, which nicely fits into the double-digit European unemployment rate.
8. M3 Money Supply: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. The amount of money in circulation fell in the past two months. This is a rare event. Less money means less inflation and a weak currency. A rise of 0.2% is expected this time – some stability.
9. Consumer Confidence: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. This consumer survey is run by the official Eurostat institute. 2,300 consumers have showed less pessimism during the past months, with the score reaching -16 last month – in the negative zone. A retreat to 017 is predicted this time.
10. German Prelim CPI: Published during Friday. A significant rise in prices two months ago was erased last month. Europe is still suffering from deflation. The see-saw is expected to continue this month, with a rise of 0.5% in prices. Note that th figure is compiled from the reports of the  different  German states.
11. CPI: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Together with Germany’s release, the all-European inflation numbers will also come out. They are reported in an annual format. Consumer prices are expected to be steady with an annual rise of 1%. Core CPI is predicted to edge up from 1.1% to 1.2%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD had a good start to the week, peaking at 1.3788. It later fell sharply. At first it tested last week’s bottom of 1.3530 and then continued to test the important 1.3423 support line before closing above 1.3531.

Immediate support can be found at 1.3531, a new line that didn’t appear in last week’s outlook. Below, 1.3423 was successfully tested and provides very strong support.

If 1.3423 is broken, there are no significant support lines up to 1.3080, the area where the Euro began the long rally.

Looking up, 1.3790 provides immediate resistance. Further above, 1.3850 worked well as both a support and resistance line, and is already more significant.

Further above, the round number of 1.40 provides strong resistance followed by 1.42. Lines above that are too far to mention.

I continue my bearish sentiment on EUR/USD.

Bernanke’s mini rate hike joined the long list of factors that hurt the Euro. Remember that the Greek crisis isn’t really over. It’s on the sidelines. With this week’s GDP updates, we’ll probably see continued weakness.

This popular pair receives excellent technical reviews all over the web. Here are my favorites:

• Casey Stubbs asks if the recent moves are a consolidation or a rebound using his charts.
• The Geek Knows brings his weekly review and outlook.
• TheLFB trade team discuss the impact of the Bernanke’s move and focus on the big picture
• James Chen sees renewed bearish momentum after a correction.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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