EUR/USD Outlook – January 18-22

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Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

The Euro enjoyed higher ground in the past week, but it proved only temporary, as it fell across the board on Greek troubles. The upcoming week provides the all-important ZEW Economic Sentiment among many other indicators. Here is an outlook for the key events in Europe and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Eur/Usd Forecast

The last time that the ZEW released their figure – the Euro dropped. Will it happen again? Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. The German version of this important survey has made a sharp decline last month, and fell to 50.4 points. It’s expected to stay almost unchanged at 50.3 this time.  Also the all-European version fell to 48 points last month, indicating that investors and analysts are worried. The Euro reacted with a big fall on this news last month.
  2. German PPI: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT. Contrary to consumer prices, producer prices are not really moving. Last month saw a nice tiny rise of 0.1%, which is expected to be followed by a 0.2% rise this time. Prices must rise before Trichet starts thinking of a rate hike.
  3. French Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. France starts the monthly influx of purchasing managers’ indices. The French manufacturing sector is expanding in the past 5 months, scoring 54.7 last month. A figure above 50 means expansion while under 50 means contraction. It’s predicted to rise to 55.1, almost the peak since the crisis. The services sector is doing even better there, and currently stands on 58.7 points. It’s expected to edge up to 59.3 points in Europe’s second largest economy.
  4. German Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. Europe’s biggest economy has seen an expanding manufacturing sector in the past 3 months. PMI is expected to rise from 52.7 to 53 this time. The services sector is expanding for a longer time, but is currently at the same levels of activity -52.7. It’s predicted to rise to 53.1.
  5. All-European Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Europe isn’t only Germany and France. It’s also Greece and Spain. The manufacturing sector is expected to show a rise from 51.6 to 52.1 in PMI, while the services sector is predicted to edge up from 53.6 to 54.1. During these releases, EUR/USD will shake.
  6. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. The European Central Bank has been busy with the Greek debt problems. In its monthly bulletin, articles and internal statistics will expose what the bankers are thinking about. The general picture looks gloomy at the moment.
  7. Industrial New Orders: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. After four months of neat rises, the value of purchase orders dropped by 2.2% last month, falling short of early expectations. This important indicator is predicted to rise by 0.6% this time push the Euro slightly higher.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had a good start to the week, opening with a Sunday gap above the 1.4480 resistance line which it previously failed to break. It traded mostly above this line, peaking at 1.4579 before falling below the line, and closing at 1.4367.

So, EUR/USD returned to the range. Above, I’ve modified the region and now made just one round resistance line at 1.4450. This is a change from last week’s outlook. Below, 1.42 continues to serve as support. It worked as a support line for the recent range trading, and also worked as resistance line in the past.

Looking above the range, 1.4626 was a low when the pair was trading higher. Above that, 1.48 is a significant line – it was the lower border of the previous range. Even higher, 1.5144 was the 2009 high, and is far away.

Below the range, 1.40 is a round number and also worked as temporary bottom. It’s a minor resistance line. Lower, 1.3750 is a very important support line – it was both a significant support and resistance line in the past.

The bearish sentiment on EUR/USD continues.

The Greek crisis continues to trouble the continent and might become a Greek tragedy. Add German political problems and a high unemployment rate and you get a weak Euro.

This popular pair receives excellent articles on the web. Here are a few:

  • Casey Stubbs brings a fresh analysis with his 4 hour charts.
  • TheLFB show bullish expectations for the US dollar index.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the Euro and looks forward with an interesting technical analysis.

Further reading on Forex Crunch:

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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