EUR/USD made some gains, enjoying greenback weakness. The upcoming week contains 7 events that will move the Euro. Here’s an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
In the middle of the week, I wrote about bullish signs for the Euro within the range. Indeed, EUR/USD closed higher, but didn’t break any major levels. Will it stay in the range? Break? Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:
- Employment Change: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. This is a very late figure – released almost a quarter after the the quarter ends. It still has some impact on the Euro. 5 consecutive quarters of job losses will probably be followed by a sixth one.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. This major economic indicator deteriorate rapidly in the past 5 months, hurting the Euro each time. The German version of this survey has a stronger impact. It’s expected to drop once again, from 45.1 to 43.3 points. The all-European number is expected to remain almost unchanged at 40.1 points.
- CPI: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT and overshadowed by ZEW. Prices are very stable in Europe, and this doesn’t assist the Euro at all. According to the initial, flash release, year-over-year consumer prices stand at 0.9%. Core CPI stands at 0.8%. Both numbers will probably be confirmed. The release of the ZEW survey and the CPI at the same time means a volatile markets.
- Axel Weber talks: Begins talking on Wednesday at 10:10 GMT. Weber is the leading candidate to replace Jean-Claude Trichet as the president of the ECB. The German media already began a campaign for him. So, his words become increasingly important. Hi speech in Bonn will probably shake the Euro.
- Current Account: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s current account provides a point of light – in the past two months Europe enjoys a surplus in the overall difference between exports and imports of services, incomes and goods. The surplus is expected to rise from 1.9 to 2.9 billion. The figure relates to February.
- Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. The trade balance is the goods share in the current account. This release refers to January, so it’s a late figure – less impact. Europe’s surplus is expected to drop from 7 to 5 billion.
- German PPI: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. After a strong and surprising rise of 0.8% last month (double the expectations), Germany’s producer prices are expected to rise by only 0.1% this time. This is the last inflation indicator for this week.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro began the week by reaching down to the 1.3530 support line, but soon made a move upwards, breaking through 1.3680 and temporarily breaking 1.3780 before closing at 1.3768.
Some of the lines were added on last week’s outlook. The current range is between 1.3680 to 1.3780. Note that these are minor lines. Also 1.3530 is a minor support line.
The Euro is bound between two major lines – 1.3423 which was a bottom many months ago and just tested recently and on the upside. A break of these lines will indicate a long term trend for the pair.
Above 1.3850, 1.40 and 1.42 are additional resistance lines. Below, 1.3080 is a support line in the distance.
I am now neutral on EUR/USD.
It seems that the Greek crisis, although still not resolved, is fading away from the eyes of forex traders. Also the technical indicate stability – 1.3423 wasn’t broken. We’ll probably see more range trading.
This pair receives many interesting articles on the web. Here are my favorites:
- Larry Greenberg examines the pause in the dollar’s moves and looks at the big picture.
- Casey Stubbs describes the narrow range with his 4 hour charts.
- Dan Cook at TheLFB looks at the technicals.
- The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For GBP/USD, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs