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The rumor that  Spain will ask for 280 billion euros of aid began the avalanche that sent the Euro and the other currencies tumbling down. The upcoming week is quite busy, with GDP figures standing out. Here’s an update for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD now at lower ground.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

euro dollar forecast

The Greek tragedy was only the tip of the iceberg  –  debt contagion took over the world news and sent the Euro down. European leaders might provide solutions during the weekend. Later the indicators will speak. Let’s start:

  1. French Industrial Production: Published on Monday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy’s industry stalled last month. This came after a strong month, so it wasn’t too bad. This figure is expected to rise this time.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 6:00 GMT. This survey of 2,800 investors made a huge surprise last month by turning positive – this indicates optimism, for the first time since the crisis began. After reaching 2.5 points, it will probably drop, but remain positive.
  3. German Final CPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. After two months of neat rises in prices, they dropped again last month. The initial release showed a drop of 0.1% in prices, and this will probably be confirmed now.
  4. German GDP: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. Germany’s economy didn’t grow in the fourth quarter of 2009. This stagnation was also seen in the figure for the whole continent. Germany is the first country to publish its Gross Domestic Product for Q1 of 2010. This will rock the Euro. This is the first, preliminary release.
  5. French GDP: Published on Wednesday at 6:45GMT. Contrary to Germany, Europe’s second largest economy did grow in the previous quarter – 0.5% – which is quite good. Will it lead the recovery? Probably not.
  6. Flash GDP: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. After the initial figure for Q4 showed a nice 0.4% growth rate, this was later revised to 0% – no growth. There is great fear that the Euro-zone will plunge back to recession, starting with a contraction in Q1 of 2010.
  7. Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. All European industrial production grew in the past two months quite  nicely- 1.6% and 0.7%. Learning from the past, this will probably not be followed this time.
  8. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. Although many European banks will closed on Thursday due to Ascension Day, the ECB will release its monthly review of the economies. This statistical data tends to shake the currency.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro traded between 1.3267 and 1.3080 at the beginning of the week. It made an initial drop above 1.2880 and then began the big collapse to a swing low of 1.2520 before recovering and closing at 1.2750.

After losing 450 pips, some lover lines were added on top of  last week’s outlook. Euro/Dollar is currently in a range between 1.2707, a minor support line from February 2009 to 1.2886, a support line in May 2009.

Looking up, 1.3080 now turns into a resistance line. This is were the 2009 rally of the Euro began. Higher, 1.3267 is also a significant resistance line, working in both roles in recent months.

Looking down below 1.2707, the next line of support is 1.2520 – the past week’s low. Lower, 1.24 was a support line at the height of the crisis, followed by 1.2330, the lowest line in 4 years.

I remain bearish on the Euro.

Hope from the European emergency summit could boost the Euro at the beginning of the week, but the troubles will still remain. Note that the European fundamentals aren’t too good either.

This pair receives many great reviews on the web:

  • Casey Stubbs provides an up-to-date technical analysis for the pair using daily and hourly charts.
  • James Chen sees a continued bearish bias.
  • Andrei talks about further drops, and marks support and resistance lines.
  • Kathy Lien focuses on EUR/GBP and sees further downside also there.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading:

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