EUR/USD has been wobbling between mixed data and Trump’s messy start. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: US policy uncertainty and Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence are likely to continue alternating as drivers of the EURUSD in the short term. This week, the FOMC meeting could remind markets that risks are titled in the long-run towards a stronger dollar, through the possibility of more rate hikes, but the White House unpredictability has led investors to pare back short EURUSD positions since the beginning of the year. The most important event will likely be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday in which we do not expect any change in policy. In this regard, our economic team recognizes that there was a notably hawkish shift in tone from the Fed at its December meeting. In addition to believing that cumulative progress toward the dual mandate justified a rate increase, the FOMC views signaled that monetary policy will not be passive in the face of expansionary fiscal policy. We expect no change in the target range for the federal funds rate this month. Instead, we believe that the statement will reflect the view that the labor market is at or near full employment. Regarding inflation, we look for a modest upgrade to reflect recent trends, but believe the committee sees this as mainly a mechanical passing of base effects from energy prices and currency movements. At the moment, markets (fed fund futures), price in a 70%+ probability of two hikes, roughly in line with Barclays expectations in 2017. For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch. Our previous analysis of consensus trades (short EURUSD is one such trade this year) suggests that the poor performance is likely to stay for some more weeks. The political risk in Europe is likely to reassert itself more firmly on this pair as we approach the Dutch general election (15 March), where risks have been underestimated by markets, in our view In addition, the January employment report will be published as usual on Friday. We forecast non-farm payroll to have increased 175k in January, a pick up from the December slowdown. We forecast for the unemployment rate to decline one tenth to 4.6%. We expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m and for the average weekly hours to be unchanged at 34.3. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Opinions share Read Next Trump Trouble: USD/JPY remains on the back foot Yohay Elam 6 years EUR/USD has been wobbling between mixed data and Trump's messy start. What's next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: US policy uncertainty and Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence are likely to continue alternating as drivers of the EURUSD in the short term. This week, the FOMC meeting could remind markets that risks are titled in the long-run towards a stronger dollar, through the possibility of more rate hikes, but the White House unpredictability has led investors to pare back short EURUSD positions since the beginning of the year. The most important event will likely be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.