Well, after Bernanke’s two days of congressional testimony, we don’t know more about the future of the tapering. What we only know is that the pair has been in sideways moves and couldn’t break out from the range last week. I have read plenty of articles which argue that the greenback needs to get stronger, but I am pretty sure that if we hear bad news from the US, the dollar will start weakening.
All the macros in the last few weeks indicated that there is no real recovery in terms of unemployment and inflation in America. So we will wait for more bad news and then set up our positions for a long on EURUSD.
Technically the pair didn’t hit any key support last week. In the bigger picture it was an unspectacular week. Some traders such as me expected it to test the 1.3200 level but that didn’t happen. We are still in the range 1.3000 – 1.3200. The EURUSD needs to break out from this area having a clear picture about the direction. My personal bet is the long side. But this is only one opinion. I guess that on Monday or Tuesday a breakout on the upside could happen.