EUR/USD continues trading in nice ranges and has now moved lower. Today we already have significant events in the US and more importantly, a speech by Mario Draghi, one week after his monetary blitz. Is the pair about ready for the next big move? And to which direction?
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair consolidated in the lower range, after dropping from the higher range earlier.
- Current range: 1.2865 to 1.2920
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2920, 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
- Above: 1.2955, 1.30, 1.3050, 1.31 and 1.3175.
- There are two clear ranges: 1.2865 to 1.2920 and 1.2920 to 1.2955.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00 German Final CPI. Exp. 0%, actual 0%.
- 6:45 French CPI. Exp. +0.4%, actual +0.4%.
- 8:00 ECB Monthly bulletin.
- 12:30 US jobless claims. Exp. 306K.
- 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Exp. -132 billion.
- 19:00 ECB president Mario Draghi talks.|
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Draghi is back: A weel away from the big drama that hit the euro, the echoes are still heard questions also arise. What will be the size of the ABS program? The ECB would need a big ABS market in order to succeed, and that isn’t certain. The president of the ECB is speaking today and this is clearly the main event. Beforehand, we have the monthly bulletin, something that could explain last week’s decision.
- Catalonia national day: It is the tricentennial anniversary of Catalonia’s defeat by the Spaniards and huge demonstrations are planned in Barcelona, ahead of the November 9th “consultation”. The events in Spain’s northeastern region are watched on the background of the Scottish referendum. Analysis: Scotland Referendum: what the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
- Pause in greenback strength: The US dollar pared some of its gains against quite a few currencies. Data so far has been unexciting with the JOLTS data. For the euro, it meant moving back up to the higher range of 1.2920 to 1.2955, but it didn’t stay there too much time.
- Better behavior: The recent downfall in the euro has contributed to higher volatility and also to higher predictability: trading ranges are respected in a better manner and more pips can be made. Read more: EUR/USD enjoys higher volatility, improved technical behavior.
- Geopolitics is background noise: The EU agreed on new sanctions against Russia but decided to wait with them. This is good news for the euro, as trade relations with Russia are important to the European economies. US president Obama announced air strikes against the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria. Both conflicts seem to be on the backburner now.
In our latest podcast, we run down the huge ECB decision among other topics.
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