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EUR/USD  is now trading in a narrowing range and has left the swings behind, for now. Are we getting closer to a burst? And if so, to which direction? The focus today is on US data, which focuses on the consumer with events that could trigger some action.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair traded in a narrow range, clinging to the  pivotal line of 1.2920.
  • Current range:  1.2865  to 1.2920

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD September 12 technical analysis fundamental outlook and sentiment euro dollar

  • Below: 1.2920, 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
  • Above: 1.2955,  1.30, 1.3050, 1.31 and 1.3175.
  • There are two clear ranges: 1.2865 to 1.2920 and 1.2920 to 1.2955.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00  German WPI. Exp. +0.2%, actual -0.2%.
  • 7:00 Spanish CPI. Exp. -0.5%, actual -0.5%.
  • 9:00 Euro-zone  Industrial Production. Exp. +0.6%.
  • 9:00 Euro-zone employment change. Exp. +0.1%.
  • 12:30 US retail sales, exp. +0.3%, core sales exp. +0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Import prices. Exp. -0.8%.
  • 13:55 US Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 83.2 points. See how to trade the figure with EUR/USD.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Unimpressive US data: After the JOLTS figure disappointed, so did weekly jobless claims, which may have changed their direction after a few good months. Today’s figures are quite interesting, with a focus on the consumer. The markets are beginning to warm up towards the FOMC meeting next week. A 7th taper is expected, but what will the sentiment be? We talk about this in the latest podcast.
  • Draghi keeps quiet:  A week away from the  big drama that hit the euro, the echoes are still heard questions also arise. What will be the size of the ABS program?  The ECB would need a big ABS market in order to succeed, and that isn’t certain. The president of the ECB spoke yesterday but didn’t say anything new.
  • Better behavior: The recent downfall in the euro has contributed to higher volatility and also to higher predictability: trading ranges are respected in a better manner and more pips can be made. Read more:  EUR/USD enjoys higher volatility, improved technical behavior.
  • Geopolitics is background noise: The EU agreed on new sanctions against Russia but decided to wait with them. This is good news for the euro, as trade relations with Russia are important to the European economies. US president Obama announced air strikes against the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria. Both conflicts seem to be on the backburner now.

In our latest podcast, we talk about the FOMC meeting.

Download it directly here.