EUR/USD is trading around 1.2850, unable to recover especially after the blow it got from yet another disappointing German business survey: the IFO business climate fell to 104.7 points, the lowest in 15 months. We have an important figure coming from the US later on in the day.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair traded well within the range..
- Current range: 1.2820 to 1.2870
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2820, 1.28, 1.2750 and 1.2660.
- Above: 1.2870, 1.2920, 1.2960, 1.30 and 1.3050
- We are now one range lower, and there is room for more falls.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 8:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Exp. 105.9 points. Actual 104.7.
- 13:00 Belgian NBB Business Climate. Exp. -7.1 points.
- 14:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 432K.
- 16:05 US FOMC member Loretta Mester talks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Weak German confidence: Germany’s No. 1 think tank reported the lowest business confidence since April 2013. This is the fifth consecutive fall and it joins the weak ZEW number. Also the “expectations” and the “current assessment” components are lower. On the other hand, PMIs were somewhat better: while both French PMIs point to a contraction, the composite outcome is better than expected. German data is decidedly mixed. France is in the limelight nowadays amid growing pressure to reform its economy, while it wants Germany to increase spending.
- Disappointing US existing home sales: The sales of existing homes dropped by 1.8% in August and the weak figure joins unimpressive building permits and housing starts. The focus is now on new home sales – these trigger a wider range of economic activities.
- Weak TLTRO results – Draghi unexcited:The first round of targeted cheap loans which are expected to reach the real economy had a poor outcome of only 82.6 billion euros. Banks are not so eager to lend, even cheap money. This raises the chances of further monetary stimulus from the ECB, and weighs on the euro. In his testimony, Draghi did not seem worried about this and basically raised the expectations for December’s tranche of the TLTRO.
- Fed related dollar rally: The Fed did not remove the critical word “considerable” regarding the timing of the first rate hike and still said there is under utilization in the labor market. The moves to the hawkish side were very subtle: two hawkish dissenters, more members seeing a hike in 2015 and an explicit declaration that QE ends in October. Nothing was big news, but the markets seem hungry for dollars and EUR/USD fell to a new 14 month low at 1.2834 but lost a lot of ground in the late hours of the week.
In our latest episode, we talk about the risk/reward ratio, the FOMC decision and what it means for the dollar and Chinese wobbles:
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