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EUR/USD  managed to rise higher and lift its head above 1.3150 after reports emerged about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The reports were modified later on and it now seems that the EU will even impose new sanctions today. European data hasn’t been too good as tensions mount towards the ECB. Will we see  a  continued recovery or  another slide?

Join the webinar about the ECB and the NFP today at 14:00 GMT.  Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.

  • EUR/USD dropped a bit lower in the range before stabilizing.
  • Current range: 1.31 to 1.3150.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD Technical analysis September 3 foreign exchange FX trading

  • Below: 1.31 1.3050, 1.30 and 1.2940.
  • Above: 1.3150, 1.3175, 1.3220 and 1.3295.
  • 1.3150 switches to resistance after the downfall on Friday.
  • 1.3108  is the new low, but real support is at the round number of 1.31.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:15  Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 55.5 points,  actual 58.1.
  • 7:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 51.7, actual 49.8 points.
  • 8:00 Euro-zone final services PMI. Exp. 53.5, actual 53.1 points.
  • 9:00 Euro-zone retail sales. Exp. =0.3%, actual =0.4%.
  • 14:00 US Factory orders. Exp. +10.9%.
  • 18:00 US Beige Book.

*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Ceasefire or conflict:  The breaking news about a  permanent ceasefire came out of Kiev and were followed by a denial from Moscow. While the presidents talked, nothing is really changing on the ground. Obama didn’t confirm this in an appearance in Estonia and the EU is reportedly  about to announce new sanctions today. While the euro managed to maintained its gains, it didn’t go to far. Analysis:  5 Reasons to fade the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire
  • Pressure on Draghi: Tensions is mounting towards the rate decision on Thursday. Will Draghi announce QE or just hint about an upcoming announcement? Will there be more cuts in the rock bottom interest rates? Expectations stand on more words but no new action. France wants Draghi to weaken the euro while Germany was reportedly unhappy with his comments in Jackson Hole –  comments that implied more action.
  • High hopes for the NFP: While the US events are currently on the back-burner, the first hint was positive: the ISM manufacturing PMI came out better than expected. Join the webinar for a preparation for the NFP and the ECB.

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