EUR/USD is trading under 1.29, continuing the downfall. The pair reached a low of 1.2865. The latest leg down can be associated with another strength of the greenback, that reached high levels against many other currencies. The JOLTS figure in the US will be eyed by the Fed.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair continued sliding and bounced off a new low of 1.2865. Analysis: Is EUR/USD oversold?
- Current range: 1.28655 to 1.2920.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
- Above: 1.2920, 1.2955, 1.30, 1.3050, 1.31 and 1.3175.
- The new low of 1.2920 is minor support on the way to 1.2840.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:45 French Trade Balance. Exp. -5 billion. Actual -5.5 billion.
- 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Exp. 95.9 points.
- 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Exp. 4.72 million.
- 14:00 US FOMC member Daniel Tarullo talks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Greenback strength: In general, it seems like just another wave of buying the US dollar. Weakness is seen in other parts of the world: the pound tumbled on the latest Scotland polls and the yen suffered a weaker GDP. The market seems to focus on the strong top-tier US data, and ignore the weak NFP that showed only 142K jobs were gained.
- The full Draghi show: The ECB first surprised by cutting the interest rate deeper: 0.05% for the lending rate and -0.20% for the deposit rate. It was surprising given that the deposit rate was already negative. And then came Draghi, announcing the ABS program. Details are expected in October but he made it clear that it will have a “sizable” impact on the balance sheet. This already sent the pair to bounce off 1.30. It continued deteriorating from there – over 200 pips in one day, a treat unseen in a long time. Here is the full coverage of the ECB. The steps are still weighing heavily on the euro.
- No new EU sanctions on Russia for now: The EU agreed on new sanctions against Russia but decided to wait with them. This is good news for the euro, as trade relations with Russia are important to the European economies. Finally some change on the ground: a ceasefire agreed upon on Friday is being occasionally violated, but in general it is still on. There is suspicion on all sides, so new sanctions are still on the cards. .
In our latest podcast, we run down the huge ECB decision among other topics.
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