The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the publication of employment data is highly anticipated by the markets. Traders should note that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an unofficial indicator, with the release of the government Non-Farm Employment Change taking place one day later.
The indicator’s previous two readings have fallen below forecast, as the employment sector remains sluggish. The market estimate for the July reading stands at 101 thousand newly employed people, the lowest market prediction since October 2011. Will the indicator rebound this month and meet or beat the forecast?
Sentiment and Levels
The relatively surprising outcome of the EU Summit is a good step forward and the euro jumped on the news, although it has since lost some ground. An interest rate cut by the ECB would be a further positive step to help stabilize the ailing EZ economies. However, the Summit proposals are full of flaws and the implementations are yet to be seen. The markets are already expressing doubt about the results and whether the measures can resolve the crippling debt crisis. In the US, the housing sector continues to shine while most other economic indicators are pointed downwards. We could see EUR/USD break out following the release of US employment data later this week, if the release is not what the markets predicted. Thus, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2750, 1.2670, 1.2623, 1.2520, 1.240 and 1.24.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 95K to 107K: In this scenario, EUR/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 108K to 114K: A reading above expectations would signal a stronger job market, and could push the pair below one support level.
- Well above expectations: Above 114K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could push EUR/USD downwards, and two or more support levels could be broken.
- Below expectations: 88K to 94K: The pair could rise on a weak reading, with one resistance line at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 88K: Such a scenario would be bearish for the dollar, and EUR/USD could break two or more resistance lines.
Share
