EUR/USD: Trading the German Initial GDP February 2014

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German Preliminary GDP is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. Thus, publication of the indicator could have a significant impact on the movement of EUR/USD. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

German Preliminary GDP is released quarterly, and provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy in the past quarter. Traders should pay particular attention to this economic indicator and treat it as a market-mover.

The indicator posted a modest gain of 0.3% in Q3, matching the forecast. No change is expected for the Q4 release.

Sentiments and levels

Technically, the pair is stuck in the current trading range, and needs a serious trigger to break out. Mario Draghi didn’t have any tricks up his sleeve as the ECB held the course last week. Unless Eurozone GDP surprises the markets, we’re unlikely to see a move upside or to the downside.

While there is more talk coming out of the ECB about a negative deposit rate in March, only fresh inflation data can trigger expectations and this is not likely this week. In the US, the slowdown of job growth is certainly worrying, but the big picture remains positive for the US economy and tapering of QE will likely continue. All in all, barring a really big surprise, range trading is probably the best option for this pair. Thus, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.38, 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3580, 1.3515 and 1.3450.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 0.0% to +0.3%. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: +0.4% to +0.8%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 0.8%: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could push EUR/USD downwards, and a second resistance line might break as a result.
  4. Below expectations: – 0.5% to -0.1%: A contraction in GDP could push the pair higher and break below one level of support.
  5. Well below expectations: Below -0.5%. In this scenario, the EUR/USD could move higher and break below a second support line.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

To follow this event live:  [do action=”calendar-event” eventid=”64191794-d123-4355-b424-62a53a5383e1″/] Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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