EUR/USD: Trading The New Home Sales

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The US New Home Sales report is a leading indicator of housing activity. The indicator is released on a monthly basis, and helps analysts track consumer spending. A higher reading than that expected by the market is bullish for the dollar.

 Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

 The Existing Homes Sales Report measures the number of new single-family homes sold the previous month. An increase in home sales sends a strong signal of consumer spending and confidence in the economy.

The February reading came in at 321K, its best reading since May 2011. The market is expecting even better figures in March, with a forecast of 326K. Will the indicator continue its upswing this month?

 Sentiments and levels

The relative calm after the Greek debt crisis is supporting the pair, but the eurozone economies remain a cause of concern. So, the sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3333, 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3150, 1.3080, 1.30 and 1.2945.

5 Scenarios  

Within expectations: 322K to 330K: In such a case, EUR/USD is likely to move within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.

Above expectations: 331K to 335K: An unexpected higher reading can push EUR/USD below one support level.

Well above expectations: Above 335K: A sharp increase could push the pair below two or more support levels.

Below expectations: 317K to 321K: A reading lower than forecast could send EUR/USD above one resistance level.

Well below expectations: Below 317K: A sharp decline would signal weakness in the housing sector. In such an outcome, the pair could well break two or more resistance levels.

For more on the Euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.