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US Advance GDP is a key release and is published each quarter. Advance GDP measures production and growth of the economy, and is considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is  higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Advance GDP is the first of three versions and has the most impact on the movement of EUR/USD. Traders should pay close attention to the GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.

US  Final GDP slipped in Q4 to 2.2%, within expectations.  The markets are expecting a softer reading for Advance GDP  in Q1, with an  estimate of  1.0%.

Sentiments and levels

The  euro couldn’t do much last week despite  horrible US data,  a clear sign that the currency  is struggling. In addition to the determined ECB on QE, Eurozone data remains soft. Assuming that US Advance GDP meets expectations, there is room for EUR/USD to fall. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1050, 1.10, 1.0910, 1.0815, 1.0760, and 1.0660.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  0.7% to 1.3%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 1.3% to 1.7%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair  below one  support line.
  3. Well above  expectations: Above 1.7%: A surge in the reading would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break  below a second support line  as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 0.2% to 0.6%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could  push above one  resistance level.
  5. Well below  expectations: Below 0.2%. A very weak reading could  lead to  the pair breaking above a second resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the  EUR/USD forecast.

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