EUR/USD: Trading the US CB Confidence Dec 2014

The US CB  Consumer Confidence is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding their opinion of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to its release, which always has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Update:  US CB Consumer Confidence rises to 92.6

Published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

CB Consumer Confidence  is an important gauge of  consumer confidence.  Increased consumer confidence  usually means an increase in  consumer spending, a key engine of economic growth.

The indicator weakened in November, slipping to 88.7 points. This was well below the estimate of 95.9 points. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the December reading, with the estimate standing at 94.6 points.

Sentiments and levels

With the ECB running out of tricks  in its toolbox, QE in the euro-zone seems closer and closer. This prospect is weighing heavily on the euro. In the US, there seems to be a gap between the excellent second and third quarters and slower growth which is expected in Q4. Nevertheless, the momentum of the strong dollar is likely to continue in the last days of the year, in a “Santa Rally” of sorts. The general trend remains down, even  as low  as 1.05, but we could see some kind of corrections  as doubts  continue  over the pace of  the US recovery. So, the overall sentiment is  bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.2450, 1.2360, 1.2280, 1.2245, 12170  and  1.2040.

5 Scenarios    

1. Within expectations: 91.0 to 98.0: In such a case, EUR/USD is likely to remain within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 98.1 to 102.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 102.0: A sharp increase in consumer confidence could boost the dollar and send the pair below a second support level.
4. Below expectations: 87.0 to 90.9: A reading lower than forecast could push EUR/USD above one resistance level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 86.9: In this outcome, the pair could break  above a second  resistance level.

For more on EUR/USD, see the EUR/USD forecast.

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