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US JOLTS Job Openings measures the change in the number of employment openings, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible JOLTS outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, publication of employment data such as JOLTS Job Openings is highly anticipated by the markets, and the indicator can have a strong impact on the direction of EUR/USD.

JOLTS Job Openings  posted impressive gains in the April release, with a reading of 5.38 million. This was well above  the estimate of 5.03 million. The markets are  expecting another strong reading, with an estimate of 5.30 million for the May report.

Sentiment and Levels

The Eurozone is reeling from the decisive  NO vote in  Sunday’s Greek referendum, as the ball  now shifts to the big boys in Europe,  Germany and France. It’s clear that the  Greek crisis is here to stay and this weighs on the euro, even if it isn’t always a linear move. And even if the crisis moves away from the headlines, we are still left with diverging monetary policies and diverging growth between  the euro-zone and the US. The Fed is still on track to raise the rates in September in the same week that the ECB expanded its shopping list, funded by printed euros. So, the sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.1290, 1.1190, 1.1113, 1.1030, 1.0950 and  1.0865.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  5.27M to 5.33M: In this scenario, EUR/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations:  5.34M to 5.38M: A reading above expectations could push the pair  below one  support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 5.38M: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel EUR/USD downwards, and a second  support level could be broken.
  4. Below expectations:  5.22M to 5.26M: A weak reading could push the pair higher, with one  resistance line  at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 5.21M: Such a scenario would  likely weigh on the dollar, and EUR/USD could break a second  resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

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