EUR/USD: Trading the US JOLTS April 2014

JOLTS Job Openings measures the change in the number of employment openings last month, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Update:  US JOLTS jump to 4.17 million – better than expected

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, publication of employment data, such as the JOLTS Job Openings,, is highly anticipated by the markets, and the indicator can have a strong impact on the direction of EUR/USD.

JOLTS Job Openings  dropped slightly  in February, coming in at 3.97 million. This was short of the estimate of 4.02 million. The markets are   expecting some improvement for the March release, with an estimate of 3.99 million. Will the indicator meet or beat this prediction?

Sentiment and Levels

The general direction of EUR/USD remains down after the ECB made it clear that it is  considering  unconventional tools such as QE and negative deposit rates.    As well,  sentiment  about the US economy remains  positive as NFP climbed last week. However, after three weeks of downfalls, the pair could take some time for consolidation before the next move down. Details of a potential QE program or another significant rise in the ECB rhetoric are probably needed for another immediate move down. So, the sentiment has turned  from bearish to neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.3830, 1.3800, 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and  1.3560.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations:  396M to 402M: In this scenario, EUR/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations:  402M to 406M: A reading above expectations would signal economic expansion, and could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 406M: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel EUR/USD upwards, and a second resistance level could be broken.
4. Below expectations:  391M to 395M: A weak reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 391M: Such a scenario would be bearish for the dollar, and EUR/USD could break a second support level.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.