EUR/USD: Trading the US NFP Oct 2013


US Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading could affect the direction of EUR/USD.

There is added anticipation to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls, which has been delayed for several weeks. The September release was supposed to be issued in early October, but this was postponed due to the shutdown. The August release rose to 169 thousand, but this was short of the estimate of 178 thousand. The markets are expecting another improvement, with an estimate of 179 thousand.

Sentiments and levels

The US dollar took a tumble after the debt deal, as QE has been pushed off. The solution just sows the seed to the next crisis. In addition to the debt ceiling and government shutdown, another round of sequester cuts awaits us in early January. It is hard to see US politicians reach a deal before the holiday season, and even harder to see the Fed tapering in this environment.

The euro took advantage of the dollar’s troubles, but hasn’t broken critical resistance, and has no reason to continue rallying. The high exchange rate, falling inflation and tight credit have already pushed ECB rhetoric to higher ground. We could see action sooner than later, or at least worries about the strength of the euro. Europe’s troubles are far from over. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3940, 1.3870, 1.3710, 1.3650, 1.3570 and 1.3460.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 176K to 182K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 183K to 187K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 187K: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could prop up the pair, and a second support line could fall as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 172K to 175K: A weaker reading than forecast could result in EUR/USD pushing above one line of resistance.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 172K. In this scenario, the pair could move above a second resistance line.

For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.


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