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US Advance GDP is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity, and publication of Advance GDP could have a significant impact on the movement of EUR/USD. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

GDP reports are released quarterly, and provide an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy in the past quarter. Traders should pay particular attention to this economic indicator and treat it as a market-mover.

Final GDP for Q3 posted a gain of 1.4%, edging above the estimate of 1.3%. The markets have high hopes from Advance GDP for Q2, with a forecast of 2.6%.

Sentiments and levels

Monetary policy continues to favor the US dollar, with a rate hike likely in December. The US economy is looking strong, buoyed by a hot labor market. In the Eurozone, inflation levels are low and growth remains weak. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1190, 1.1125, 1.10, 1.0825, 1.0780 and 1.0710

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 2.3% to 2.6%. In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 2.7% to 3.1%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 3.1%: Such an outcome could push EUR/USD downwards, and a second support line might break as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 1.8% to 2.2%: A weak GDP reading could push the pair higher and break one level of resistance.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 1.8%. A much softer gain than forecast could see EUR/USD move higher and break above a second resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast