EUR/USD:Trading the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

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The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys consumer attitudes and expectations about the US economy. A reading which is higher than the forecast is bullish for the US dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT.

Indicator Background

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is released monthly, is an important leading economic indicator. It helps measure future spending behavior, and provides an indication of consumer confidence in the economy. Analysts look to the index to help answer that all-important question of “is the US consumer optimistic or pessimistic about the economy”?

The July release came in at 80.0 points. Although a strong reading, this was lower than the July reading of 83.0 points, and way off the estimate of 85.6. The estimate for the August release stands at 82.6 points.

Sentiments and levels

The euro is getting no love from the ECB: with increasing talk of a rate cut, the central bank is weighing on the pair. In addition, a third bailout for Greece seems inevitable and German, Italian and Eurozone Industrial Production has slipped.

Despite the big disappointment in the Non-Farm Payrolls, (especially in the participation rate), hints from the Fed points to tapering. The Fed could ease into reduction in bond-buying with a reduction of, say $15 billion. Tapering is not fully priced in yet. In order to hold back on tapering, perhaps only a big escalation is Syria is needed. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3520, 1.3415, 1.33, 1.3240, 1.3100 and 1.3050.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 79.0 to 86.0: In such a case, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 86.1 to 90.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 90.0: The chances of such a scenario are low. A second support line or more might be broken on such an outcome.
  4. Below expectations: 75.0 to 78.9: A poor reading could push the pair upwards, and one  resistance level could be broken.
  5. Well below expectations: Under 75.0: A sharp drop in consumer confidence will likely the dollar, and EUR/USD could break two resistance levels.

For more on the Euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

6 Comments

  1. Pingback: EUR/USD:Trading the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | Beginning Forex

  2. Pingback: EUR/USD:Trading the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | myfxequipment

  3. Pingback: EUR/USD:Trading the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - James Invest | James Invest

  4. Nice info, great article! EURUSD is currently fighting another resistance. Next moves will be a great opportunity, we’ll see soon…

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