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We have both Kaplan and Mester crossing the wires:

Fed’s Mester:

  • IOER  tweak was not a signal on policy, but a technical adjustment
  • Inflation is a bit low, labour mkts are ‘very strong’
  • Interest rates are at ‘neutral’, we’re now in a good spot

Fed’s Kaplan:

  • Fed rates are in the neighbourhood of neutral.
  • High debt could amplify downturn.