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Previewing next week’s key events for market participants, TD Securities analysts noted that the focus on the November 3 US election is likely to intensify with next Tuesday’s first presidential debate. 

Key quotes

“The topics will include COVID-19, the economy and the Supreme Court. Former VP Biden maintains a sizable 7pp lead over President Trump in national polling, although the Electoral College race looks much tighter. See our US Election Tracker for more.”

“Payrolls probably rose fairly strongly by pre-COVID standards, but with the pace slowing again, and the level still down around 11mn since February. We are assuming a 200k decline in government payrolls, due largely to weak education hiring at the start of the school year. More positively, the initial manufacturing survey data for September point to another solid ISM reading.”