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The meeting minutes from the June Fed decision, the “hawkish hike”, echoed some of the statement, but also provided hints of a plan.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

CIBC Research comments on today’s FOMC minutes from the June meeting:

We changed our call for the next Fed hike by moving it to December (from September) and the June Fed minutes seem to confirm that the September meeting will instead be used to announce the start of the run-off of the central bank’s balance sheet.

That’s evident in the level of detail provided on the run-off process, and that “several” expected to announce it within a “couple of months” while only “some” favoured “later in the year”.

Overall, nothing in here to change our view that the Fed will be able to use progress in labour markets to justify another hike this year, but all the detail on the balance sheet issue suggests that the next move will be the run-off initiation rather than a hike,” CIBC argues.

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