The Greek crisis is at a much more dangerous phase now, but it was on the Fed’s mind already in June. This is one of the reasons for caution. Also China, whose stock market is in the news now, was a reason for worry, but the focus was on slower growth.
In general, the minutes seem to provide more insight on the generally dovish tone. The dollar is a bit lower and ticking down across the board, but it’s nothing earth shattering.
After the first escalation in the Greek crisis, when banks shut down, EUR/USD managed to climb up from a Sunday gap and eventually rally. One of the reasons was that in case of a deterioration in the old continent, the Fed could postpone any rate hike. Counter intuitively, the troubles in Europe pushed EUR/USD higher. This could happen again.
Regarding rates, one member was actually ready to raise rates but was “willing to wait”. Others expressed concern regarding a premature rate rise.
Regarding jobs, most members still wanted to see more progress in the “utilization of labor forces”. But other said this utilization gap could close towards the end of the year.
These are the minutes from the June decision, in which policy was left unchanged but the combination of a lower dot plot and a cautious Yellen eventually weighed on the dollar.
more coming
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