Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Breakdown

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD (daily chart) as of February 21, 2013 has broken down substantially below a confluence of several important support factors. These include: the key 1.3300 support/resistance level; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last major bullish run; the 50-day simple moving average; and the “neckline” of a well-formed head-and-shoulders pattern. Price has also dropped even further to breakdown tentatively below an uptrend support line extending back to the July 2012 1.2041 low.

This marked bearishness within the last two days has brought price down around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, just below the 1.3200 figure. Having broken down so strongly and forming a potential trend reversal pattern in the head-and-shoulders formation, the trend bias has potentially made a critical shift to the downside with an initial price objective now residing around the key 1.3000 support level. Tentative upside resistance after the breakdown now resides around 1.3300 prior support.

James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
City Index Group

Forex trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This information is being provided only for general market commentary and does not constitute investment trading advice. These materials are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial instrument and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

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About Author

James Chen is Chief Technical Strategist for City Index Group. He is also a Chartered Market Technician. He is the author of the books: "Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading" (John Wiley & Sons, 2009) and "Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets" (John Wiley & Sons, 2010). Mr. Chen writes currency analysis, leads forex trading seminars and has appeared in numerous major financial media outlets, including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Forbes, Reuters, Dow Jones, and the Associated Press.